There won't be a wave of layoffs overnight, but it won't be a quiet winter for people working in factories and on building sites either. In the latest business tendency survey from INS (the National Institute of Statistics, Romania's official statistics office), published at the end of October, managers in manufacturing and construction say they expect to employ fewer people in the last three months of 2026. At the same time, prices are rising in every sector surveyed.

Economic analyst Adrian Negrescu describes the trend as a freeze, not a collapse: "We don't expect mass layoffs overnight, but a gradual cooling of the labour market." In practice, that means less hiring, roles left unfilled after someone leaves, shorter working hours and, in some plants, technical unemployment (temporary paid stand-down).

For you, as an employee or a job-seeker, the question isn't only whether you keep your job, but also how much your salary is still worth at a time when almost everything is getting more expensive. Below you'll find what the figures show, what rights you have and what you can do right now.

How to read the INS figures (and why minus 8% doesn't mean 8% layoffs)

The INS survey doesn't count lost jobs. It measures managers' expectations through an indicator called the balance of opinion: the share of respondents expecting an increase minus the share expecting a decrease. One example from the same survey: in retail, 38% of managers expect higher prices and only 3% expect lower prices, which gives a balance of plus 35%.

So a balance of minus 8% for headcount means that, in manufacturing, more bosses plan to cut staff than to add it. It's a signal of direction, not a number of redundancies. Here are the main readings for October, November and December 2026:

• Manufacturing: a balance of minus 8% for headcount and minus 6% for output; plus 28% for industrial product prices.

• Construction: minus 6% for staff and minus 16% for volume of work; plus 38% for construction prices.

• Services: minus 4% for business activity, with Negrescu seeing staffing pressure especially in transport, hospitality (HoReCa) and business services; plus 19% for service prices.

• Retail: the only sector with a positive headcount balance (plus 2%), though Negrescu points out this is mostly seasonal holiday hiring; plus 35% for prices.

Why factories and building sites feel the chill first

According to Negrescu, factories are squeezed by three pressures at once: expensive energy, weak demand from Europe and higher labour costs. INS data shows the trend isn't new, with factories already facing declines in industrial output.

The most exposed branches, in the analyst's reading, are the auto industry and its suppliers, metallurgy, chemicals and the wood industry. Negrescu notes that Dacia (Renault's Romanian carmaker) has already made production cuts and that the effect spreads quickly across the whole supplier network. If you work for a company making auto components, the big customer's orders show up directly in your schedule and your overtime.

On construction sites, the reasons are different: the state has cut public investment, and high interest rates are holding back the new-housing market. For a construction worker, that usually means fewer projects starting and longer gaps between jobs.

Prices are rising faster than pay

What hits your pocket straight away isn't necessarily the risk of being laid off, but the erosion of your salary. According to INS, the average net salary has increased compared with last year. Even so, Negrescu stresses that August was a month in which real wages fell: you get more lei, but they buy you less.

Services are getting more expensive fastest. In September they cost over 11% more than a year earlier, almost double headline inflation, the analyst explains, because labour is the main cost there. And the price balances in the INS survey (plus 38% in construction, plus 35% in retail, plus 28% in industry) show the pressure won't let up this winter.

What does this mean when you ask for a raise? In a sector where companies are freezing hiring, there's little room for much higher pay. That doesn't mean it isn't worth asking, but you'll need solid arguments: what your role pays, in your city, at comparable companies. A useful benchmark is Salariometru, where you can compare your salary with others in the same field.

Technical unemployment or reduced hours: what the Labour Code says

If the factory you work at temporarily shuts down a line, you may hear the term technical unemployment. Romania's Labour Code (Codul Muncii, art. 53) provides that, while activity is temporarily reduced or interrupted, employees who stop working receive an allowance paid from the payroll fund of at least 75% of the base salary for the position. During this period you remain at your employer's disposal, and it can decide to resume activity at any time.

Watch the calculation base: the percentage applies to the base salary, not your total income. Say you have a base salary of 4,000 lei (RON) gross plus another 1,000 lei from bonuses and overtime. On technical unemployment, the legal minimum is 3,000 lei gross, which is 60% of what you were earning before, not 75%. The applicable collective agreement may provide a higher allowance, so it's worth checking what it says.

Technical unemployment is not the same as reduced working hours, which the law treats separately and which comes with a correspondingly reduced salary. Ask to be told in writing which regime you're being moved to, from what date and for how long, so you know exactly what to check on your payslip.

What you can do now, step by step

• Build a cushion: Negrescu recommends that this winter employees keep an emergency fund and avoid new debt. Even a small amount set aside each month buys you thinking time if a month comes with an allowance instead of full pay.

• Read your employment contract: look at your base salary (not just the total), your bonuses and what the collective agreement says about technical unemployment.

• Watch the signals inside the company: roles left empty after departures, overtime cut, shifts merged. These are the first signs of the freeze INS describes, well before any official announcement.

• Prepare your options early: update your CV and look at jobs in more stable fields. Experience in quality, maintenance, logistics or shift work often transfers outside the factory.

• Vet your next employer: before accepting an offer, read employer reviews written by people who work there, to learn how the company behaved in tough times.

• If it comes to layoffs: you're entitled to notice, and once your contract ends you can register with ANOFM (the National Employment Agency), both for unemployment benefit (if you meet the conditions) and for job offers.

The INS figures aren't a verdict on your job. They show a direction: a few months in which factories and building sites will hire reluctantly and money will run out faster. The better you know what your contract says, what your work is worth on the market and what alternatives you have, the more this winter's decisions will be yours, not the economy's.